2010: USA and China here we come!
Home » Blog » 2010: USA and China here we come!Reflections on the climate movement’s efforts in 2009 and the work that lies ahead for 2010
350 Aotearoa spent a good part of last year focused on building momentum for a positive outcome from the UN Copenhagen climate negotiations. We set ourselves an immense challenge, by demanding nothing less than a fair and ambitious global treaty that will get us back to a concentration of carbon dioxide equivalents that is safe for our planet: no more than 350 parts per million (ppm).
When I say we, I’m speaking of the hundreds of thousands of citizens who were involved in the International Day of Climate Action on October 24, and other NGO-led campaigns such as Greenpeace’s Sign On campaign. So how did we go?
When evaluated against our aspiration for the Copenhagen negotiations, well, it’s rather depressing. The Accord that came out of the COP15 negotiations allows global emissions to continue on their exponential growth path, only diverging slightly from business as usual scenarios.
The Accord successfully severed our hopes that an agreement based on science and the most important of numbers, 350ppm, would emerge from COP15. The trajectory provided by the Accord will see us double the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere. We’re headed for 770ppm, and that means that our planet is set to be more than 3°C warmer on average than it currently is.
The social implications of the Accord are similarly grim. The right to survival of those in the most vulnerable countries have been traded like poker chips. It takes remarkably little moral fibre to know that that is not okay!
However, we’re not done yet. Our leaders are not done yet. And our efforts in 2009 were just the beginning of our journey to get us back to 350ppm. While we didn’t get the treaty we wanted (and the treaty that Earth needs), it is easy to see the impact that our efforts have made.
At the national level, both the 350 movement and the Sign On campaign were instrumental in shifting the Government’s targets from a probable 0–10% reduction on 1990 levels to a 10–20% reduction target. In building the 350 movement in NZ, we deliberately sought to build bridges and steered away from actions that would further polarise the situation. Our ethos has been to work with rather than against those who might be our adversaries. This approach reflects our longer-term vision to restore and regenerate our climate, communities and planet.
350 Aotearoa’s approach may not be the most conventional—we didn’t have any celebrities, we didn’t have any budget to spend on advertising (and barely a budget at all) and we didn’t set out to name and shame our adversaries. What we did have was people power, and it showed, both at the national level and at the international level. Whenever we spoke with MPs or talked at schools, it was the stories and photos of ordinary people getting involved that made them look at us twice.
For every one of the 160 actions organised in NZ on the International Day of Action on October 24, 2009, there are stories to be told of lessons learnt and new bonds of friendship. We have a grassroots movement that reaches into every region of Aotearoa and is linked with the 350 movement that spans just about every country in the world—at least another 180 countries. That is something that we have never had before.
It can’t be said enough how important your part in this movement is—or will be, if you’re just joining us now!
When we zoom out to the international level we get the most incredible picture of how far we have come in less than a year—as well as the picture that shows how far we still have to go.
At COP15, the most vulnerable countries were more outspoken and united than ever before. Ambassador Lima, spokesperson for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), which has 42 member states, thanked the 350 movement, saying, “We no longer feel alone, because we know you support us, and we haven’t had that before”.
For most of the first week of COP15, the African states were also more united than we’d seen before, showing the moral conviction that survival is not negotiable. Thanks to the efforts of civil society, it was supported by more than 100 countries in the call for the 350ppm target, because 350=survival.
Things changed rapidly as the heads of states arrived in the second week, and the details that really mattered were stifled by the power-play of wealthy and powerful nations. Survival became negotiable, and the rest is history. While we had many successes, the ultimate success of seaing a 350 deal eludes us.
As we step on into 2010, I ask you to join us—it’s the most important work we could be doing in 2010.
Over the next few weeks, plans for the 350 movement are being hatched in every corner of the globe. The two lynchpins that need to be shifted are the US and China, and it is almost certain that these will be the focus of the global movement. What does that look like in New Zealand? I invite you to join the conversation at 350.org.nz.
Martin Luther-King Jnr made the observation that “the arc of history is long, but it bends toward justice”. The work of 2010 is to bend that arc as much and as fast as we can, because for the most vulnerable, survival is waning.
